Who will blame Sonia?

The exit polls in Gujarat seem to suggest that the Narendra Modi led BJP government should make a comeback to power albeit with a reduced mandate to govern. The predictions range between the 90 to 110 range for the BJP while the tally reads 75-85 for the Congress. While exit polls have become as predictable as the weather, there is no doubting the fact that it does seem that Modi will return to power for a fresh five year term. If the exit polls are taken as true, then it will signal a major reversal of fortunes for the Congress, for whom the loss will surely hurt. Given the fact that most political analysts believe that the polarization of the Hindu vote one saw in the 2002 elections would not be repeated in 2007, and given such a scenario, the likelihood of a fragmented Hindu vote seemed to be on the cards. With the breakaway faction led by Keshubhai Patel causing some damage to the BJP’s numbers and given the anti-incumbency mood in South Gujarat and Saurashtra, this indeed was a fight to the death. However, if the exit polls are to be believed the contest, though tougher than the walkover of 2002, is set to be won by the BJP. In such an eventuality it is imperative on the Congress to introspect and ask where they went wrong.

A man like Narendra Modi did not need negative publicity, what with the national media and social activists of the day vilifying him for his role in the 2002 riots, his negative image was sealed by the Supreme Court calling him a “modern day Nero”. The elections of 2002 were considered forgotten and 2007 was taken as a fresh challenge for the Congress. They set out to debunk the ‘Vibrant Gujarat’ theme for the elections, spiritedly pointing out to the lack of development of many rural areas in Gujarat. They prepared dossiers to counter the incumbent’s talk of development and up till recently it seemed that the BJP might face an ‘India Shining’ redux in the elections. The wiggle room to get out of the development agenda to more emotive and vote catching themes was presented on a platter by the Congress President Sonia Gandhi. Her now famous ‘merchants of death’ comment provided Modi with the tactical opening, and he used with great élan. Hitting back at the Congress for being soft on terror and supporting a person like Sohrabuddin who was a known criminal, Modi sensed the road to victory might just be sealed through the “maut ke saudagar” remarks. The notice to Modi by the Election Commission further served to the BJP’s interest, who loudly claimed a biased commission working at the behest of Sonia Gandhi. With the EC issuing notices to Gandhi, the BJP won round two of this battle. The Congress further spoilt it chances by not projecting a credible alternative to Modi. Knowing fully well that this election had been reduced to a plebiscite on Modi, they failed to put up an opposing candidate. Bharatsinh Solanki, the poster boy for the Congress, fought valiantly, but without him being projected as the face of change, his appeal was limited. The Congress should have put aside the factionalism within the Gujarat unit and ensured that they were not adequately represented in this David versus Goliath contest. Unfortunately, the David will be sorely missed by the Congress in these elections.

Given the fact that the entire reversal of the agenda for these elections was because of that fateful speech by Sonia Gandhi, the Congress party will find conducting a post-mortem finger pointing exercise a trifle tough. Will anybody in the Congress stand up and question the wisdom of speaking words that nearly sealed the party’s fate that too when things were going in its favour? One thinks not, but in the ultimate analysis, that single phrase may have well cost the party an election that they could have wrested out of Modi’s control. The election results, if we assume the exit polls to be correct, will also speak poorly of the new Congress troika of Sonia Gandhi, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi. All three, touted as the face of secularism, development and a secure future, fared poorly. All their speeches proved lackluster or worse still played into the enemy hands. With the Congress’ show in UP giving nightmares to the party’s think tank, the Gujarat showing might put even more pressure on Rahul Gandhi and his advisors on his future in politics. When will the heir deliver is the question on everyone’s mind. Then again, in 2004 the NDA rode high on the exit polls and faced a leader-less Congress (though Sonia Gandhi was unofficially the de-facto prime ministerial candidate) only to be humbled by the electorate. It may happen again, but the chances remain remote and one thinks the psephologists have become more cautious since then. A third successive term will ensure that Modi will triumphantly declare himself the ‘merchant of victory’ for the time being, while it will be back to the drawing board for Congress and the first family.