UPA - Left: The gloves are off

The game of ‘blink’manship that has paralyzed the UPA coalition is gathering pace with both sides hardening their stance on the Indo-US nuclear deal. With only days to go before the IAEA chief Mohammed El-Baradei’s visit to India, both sides have been firing at each other, and this time no one seems to be calling it a case of friendly fire. The Congress party’s stand on the nuclear deal seems to have considerably hardened with Sonia Gandhi’s two public comments both in India and in the US. Gandhi, while addressing a gathering of NRI’s and PIO’s in New York, made it clear that the government is more or less clear on going ahead with the deal and more crucially, the opposition to the deal by the Left should not be given too much weight age. Clearly, while she was addressing a different audience and a global audience at that, she also must have calculated the impact her statement would have in the national political scenario. Her New York address cleared two things. One, she indicated to the Bush administration that the deal will go ahead and two, that once back home the stand will remain unambiguous, even if it means a head on collision with the Left.

Sonia Gandhi’s other statement while addressing a rally in Haryana was sharper and more confrontational. She termed those opposed to the nuclear deal as enemies of development and progress. The target here seems to be the Left more than the BJP, who have played down the issue post the Ram Sethu controversy. The BJP is watching the nuclear deal from the sidelines, hoping, that the internal contradictions between the allies will ultimately lead to the end of the Manmohan Singh led government. The Left was equally scathing in its reply and this sharp hardening of the Left’s stance doesn’t bode well for the life of the UPA. The UPA-Left’s committee to thrash out the differences on the nuke deal is a farce. Both sides know this, yet both sides want this committee to play out this charade hoping the other side will blink first. This sort of inertia that has set into this government is highly avoidable, with uncertainty only acting as a more destabilizing influence for the country, this while the political parties are looking at personal electoral interests.

The internal contradictions on the nuclear deal are beyond repair. The Left will settle for nothing less than an end to this deal. While the Congress, wants the 123 agreement and the safeguards agreement to be passed as thrashed out by diplomats on both sides. The Congress formed this committee with the pretext of buying time so that they could get a safeguards agreement with the IAEA and an exempt from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) of countries. Congress’ media machinery have adamantly stated that the time for this deal is running out and with a new US president to be in the White House by early 2009, the deal might get stalled forever. Congress Party’s Kapil Sibal has made the media rounds vocally advocating the supremacy of the 123 agreement over the controversial Hyde Act to allay the fears of the Left. But this attempt too proved futile. The Left has not budged from its opposition to the deal and in such a scenario Sonia Gandhi’s statements seem to signal a “knives are out strategy”.

The only thing that is truly holding back this alliance from coming apart is the fact that neither side wants to be seen as having handed the Indian electorate a mid term election. The Left would secretly welcome Gandhi’s statement as it indicates to them that Gandhi’s patience is running out and if she pulls the plug, they can claim to be the innocent lambs who wanted to save the country from US imperialism. The Congress is testing the limits of the Left by actively wooing the IAEA and seeing when exactly the Left will call its bluff. And herein lies the tragedy of this entire farce. The nation is waiting for a clear view on where this government is heading. And if indeed this alliance is over, then the country needs an adequate notice to make up its mind on whom to vote for in the event of an election. The Left and the UPA would want to buy more time at least till early next year when it can see electoral results in Gujarat and with a safeguards agreement in place. Either way, the bottom-line is clear, the days of this asymmetrical alliance are over and elections are now months away. It also could well mean and end to the nuclear deal and thereby cooling of relations between the US and India. To that account it’s a win -win for the Left. But one gets the feeling that in the event of a mid-term election the Left will not be laughing for long. The UPA is dead, long live the UPA.