The Iranian Bombshell - Intelligence nukes Bush
The United States came out with its delayed National Intelligence Estimate, a distillation of intelligence inputs from the US’ 16 intelligence gathering agencies, which have the potential to further isolate the Bush Administration aggressive policy towards Iran and its nuclear program. The National Intelligence Estimate is a biennial report that comes out with strategic intelligence pointers on key trouble spots for the United States. The National Intelligence Estimate in 2002 became controversial and contentious as it was held up by the Bush Administration as the basis to go to war with Iraq. The NIE report of 2002 was disputed by many in the intelligence setup, most notably by the former US ambassador Joe Wilson and his under cover CIA operative wife Valerie Plame and the ensuing drama that unfolded gobbled up Vice President Dick Cheney’s Chief of Staff, Scooter Libby on charges of leaking Plame’s secret identity to journalists. The 2005 estimate became the Bush administration’s holy grail for ratcheting up the pressure on the US’ other bete noire in the ‘Axis of Evil’, Iran. The 2005 estimate stated that “it assesses with high confidence that Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons despite international obligations and international pressure”. This estimate not only helped the US in rallying allies against the Iranian covert nuclear ambitions, it also made fence sitters on the Iranian issue, like India, stand up and take the potential of an Iranian bomb a reality in the coming years. The United States ensured that three rounds of sanctions were put on Iran, with a fourth round in the offing. The Iranians have consistently fought back and have insisted that their nuclear program is for energy purposes only and have accused the US of being tough on Iran because of their testy past. The confidence on display since 2005 on part of Iran is not surprising. Being a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, they do not violate any international law in seeking nuclear energy. Further, the help the Iranians get from Russia and China on the UN Security Council ensures that tougher sanctions will not see the light of day. Lastly, Iran has met all the requirements including inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s global nuclear watchdog. With the 2007 intelligence estimate now judging “with high confidence that in the fall of 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear program….the halt lasted at least several years” the Iranians can consider themselves off the hook, thanks ironically to the United States’ intelligence agencies.
The new intelligence estimate is a massive body blow for the United States. The Bush Administration is tethering under attacks from all fronts. Iraq, though better now, has been Bush’s albatross since the invasion, Afghanistan is becoming increasingly violent, North Korea is now a nuclear state, the US has lost key allies in the war on terror, Pakistan continues to be an enigma of confusion and domestically a hostile Congress is testing the President with each legislation and high profile exits from the Bush’s inner circle like Rumsfeld, Rove, Alberto Gonzales and Francis Townsend only add to Bush’s woes. That he can still smile at press conferences and public engagements is a wonder by itself, however, with Iran now using US’ own Intel estimates against Bush’s policy towards it, the smile may not last for long. The influence of the neo-conservative movement on this administration is as much a fable as a reality. The neo-con agenda to take out Iraq, Iran and North Korea was diligently followed by Bush after 9/11. On all three fronts Bush seems to be fighting a losing battle. No matter how good the progress in Iraq post the surge in troops, it remains a quagmire and the war has now gone on for longer than the US’ involvement in World War 2 costing over 3000 lives. North Korea, though now on the path of reconciliation was touted as an example by the US where diplomacy made the despot relent. However, Kim Jong-Ill relented only after testing his bomb to ensure that the West remains wary and frankly scared in future discussions. Much to the dismay of the American allies, South Korea, the US is making peace with the North after the country became nuclear, thereby, seeming to reward the hostile North for developing nuclear weapons. Iran was the other cause for concern for the United States. The Iranians under President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad have taken a hard-line view on the nuclear issue and have actively encouraged groups in the Middle East that are known to be anti-US and anti-Israel, like the Hezbollah, Hamas and countries like Syria. The United States on the other hand, has made the interests of its key ally Israel the guiding star for its Middle East policy. And in doing so, the Iranian bomb was not only a threat to Israel but by virtue of partnership, a threat to America.
The United States ensured that it raised and kept alive the prospect of the Iranian mushroom cloud alive at international forums and to its domestic audience. Many are convinced that the invasion or a limited military strike on Iran is not a question of if but when. The United States was keen to portray the Iranians as trouble makers in Iraq and in the Israel-Palestine peace process. The just concluded Annapolis peace summit was an exercise in weaning away the Arab states from the non-Arab Persians. While this may have received limited success with Syria joining the talks but Hamas boycotting it, the ‘isolate Iran’ tactic was in full swing. The United States was keen to get the European Union on its side with diplomacy and by presenting the threat of a nuclear Iran. United Kingdom was a follower and more recently French President Nicolas Sarkozy called the prospect of Iran attaining nuclear weapons as “unacceptable”. With all the machinations at work the Bush administration would have never thought that trouble would come from within. For all the rhetoric aside the Bush administration is exposed on how varied its policy is from facts. The intelligence and its corresponding foreign policy directive are tangentially apart. While it emerges that Iran actually is not after the bomb, and it hasn’t been so since 2003, the Bush administration still is harping on the prospect of a nuclear Iran.
The Bush administration will need to calibrate its response on the entire issue based on the facts and must alter policy based on newer revelations it receives. Not wanting to change policy in the face of changed circumstances is not only untenable it can seem as a witch hunt against Iran. Iran will use this as not only a vindication of its stand but also as victimization by flawed US foreign policy. George Bush, sensing the fallout of this report, has changed the goalposts. Instead of talking about developing the nuclear bomb, he now wants to talk about the “potential” and “knowledge” to develop nuclear weapons. This change in tack is detrimental to the United States and will further isolate the Bush administration. It would be better served for them to break from the past and start serious negotiations with Iran on its nuclear plans. The National Intelligence Estimate claims that Iran would “technically get enough Uranium….for a nuclear weapon sometime during 2010-2015” this should give the Bush his successor ample opportunity to change tracks and meaningfully engage with the Iranians for its strategic interest. If it fails to engage Iran, it will further isolate itself in the Middle East and amongst its allies. For the moment, it is the National Intelligence Estimate that is acting like an auto-immune disorder going against George Bush and his administration that finds itself boxed in and snuffed out.
The new intelligence estimate is a massive body blow for the United States. The Bush Administration is tethering under attacks from all fronts. Iraq, though better now, has been Bush’s albatross since the invasion, Afghanistan is becoming increasingly violent, North Korea is now a nuclear state, the US has lost key allies in the war on terror, Pakistan continues to be an enigma of confusion and domestically a hostile Congress is testing the President with each legislation and high profile exits from the Bush’s inner circle like Rumsfeld, Rove, Alberto Gonzales and Francis Townsend only add to Bush’s woes. That he can still smile at press conferences and public engagements is a wonder by itself, however, with Iran now using US’ own Intel estimates against Bush’s policy towards it, the smile may not last for long. The influence of the neo-conservative movement on this administration is as much a fable as a reality. The neo-con agenda to take out Iraq, Iran and North Korea was diligently followed by Bush after 9/11. On all three fronts Bush seems to be fighting a losing battle. No matter how good the progress in Iraq post the surge in troops, it remains a quagmire and the war has now gone on for longer than the US’ involvement in World War 2 costing over 3000 lives. North Korea, though now on the path of reconciliation was touted as an example by the US where diplomacy made the despot relent. However, Kim Jong-Ill relented only after testing his bomb to ensure that the West remains wary and frankly scared in future discussions. Much to the dismay of the American allies, South Korea, the US is making peace with the North after the country became nuclear, thereby, seeming to reward the hostile North for developing nuclear weapons. Iran was the other cause for concern for the United States. The Iranians under President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad have taken a hard-line view on the nuclear issue and have actively encouraged groups in the Middle East that are known to be anti-US and anti-Israel, like the Hezbollah, Hamas and countries like Syria. The United States on the other hand, has made the interests of its key ally Israel the guiding star for its Middle East policy. And in doing so, the Iranian bomb was not only a threat to Israel but by virtue of partnership, a threat to America.
The United States ensured that it raised and kept alive the prospect of the Iranian mushroom cloud alive at international forums and to its domestic audience. Many are convinced that the invasion or a limited military strike on Iran is not a question of if but when. The United States was keen to portray the Iranians as trouble makers in Iraq and in the Israel-Palestine peace process. The just concluded Annapolis peace summit was an exercise in weaning away the Arab states from the non-Arab Persians. While this may have received limited success with Syria joining the talks but Hamas boycotting it, the ‘isolate Iran’ tactic was in full swing. The United States was keen to get the European Union on its side with diplomacy and by presenting the threat of a nuclear Iran. United Kingdom was a follower and more recently French President Nicolas Sarkozy called the prospect of Iran attaining nuclear weapons as “unacceptable”. With all the machinations at work the Bush administration would have never thought that trouble would come from within. For all the rhetoric aside the Bush administration is exposed on how varied its policy is from facts. The intelligence and its corresponding foreign policy directive are tangentially apart. While it emerges that Iran actually is not after the bomb, and it hasn’t been so since 2003, the Bush administration still is harping on the prospect of a nuclear Iran.
The Bush administration will need to calibrate its response on the entire issue based on the facts and must alter policy based on newer revelations it receives. Not wanting to change policy in the face of changed circumstances is not only untenable it can seem as a witch hunt against Iran. Iran will use this as not only a vindication of its stand but also as victimization by flawed US foreign policy. George Bush, sensing the fallout of this report, has changed the goalposts. Instead of talking about developing the nuclear bomb, he now wants to talk about the “potential” and “knowledge” to develop nuclear weapons. This change in tack is detrimental to the United States and will further isolate the Bush administration. It would be better served for them to break from the past and start serious negotiations with Iran on its nuclear plans. The National Intelligence Estimate claims that Iran would “technically get enough Uranium….for a nuclear weapon sometime during 2010-2015” this should give the Bush his successor ample opportunity to change tracks and meaningfully engage with the Iranians for its strategic interest. If it fails to engage Iran, it will further isolate itself in the Middle East and amongst its allies. For the moment, it is the National Intelligence Estimate that is acting like an auto-immune disorder going against George Bush and his administration that finds itself boxed in and snuffed out.
posted by Karan Thakur @ 1:20 AM
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