Elephant Run : The Maya Mix Works
The most important state in Indian politics has a new Chief Minister and one which looks set to run a government for a full term. Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati stormed into history with an impressive show at the Hustings and took 206 seats in a house of 403. And with it she decimated her opponents and the pollsters in one swift clinical blow. While it was common knowledge that BSP would figure in some post poll alliance with either the BJP or Congress, an outright majority was unexpected. No government in the state has managed to do so in close to 15 years, and in doing so she will try to provide a government which will not be handicapped by the ‘compulsions’ of coalition politics and also remove any uncertainty and instability that has become inherent in the age of coalitions both at the state and the central level. However, as in past experiences in other states, a coalition government helps in maintaining checks and balances so as to assure that the larger partner does not pursue policies to improve their own party’s standing while also ensuring that a compromise on policies guides governance. Also, an absolute majority in the state does bring with it some inherent disadvantages – that of an unchecked rule by the winning side and of course corruption. However, the Indian voter seems to have put corruption behind the more important caste equations that exist in various states. Whether, the issue of corruption is no longer a priority or whether it is the lack of any candidates that are not untouched by corruption that has led to the issue being a non-issue in most states is debatable.
While all the pundits have hailed Mayawati’s dramatic transformation from the bane in the side of the upper castes to actively wooing them and come to power, this rainbow coalition formed by some deft social engineering does have it pitfalls. Many argue that quite like the Congress, the BSP has managed to bring the Brahmins and the Dalits on a common platform and win a thumping majority, albeit in a situation where the Brahmins and upper castes are playing second fiddle to the Dalits. There in lies the potential for damage for the BSP. Which way will the policies sway – towards Dalit interests or to that of the newly inducted upper caste? While winning the elections on a common social platform of upper and lower castes may have been the easy part of this wider social engineering Mayawati is credited with, managing conflicting interests is something that will truly test her political mettle. Will the upper castes that she has so sincerely wooed accept policies that are specifically in the interest of Dalits? Will the issue of reservations and quotas (though federal subjects) not hurt the upper caste voter? Then again if she does not keep her traditional vote back of Dalits happy, does she not run the risk of alienating them or worse antagonizing them much the same way that Laloo did after 15 years of rule piggybacking the OBC vote in Bihar. These amongst other issues will surely consume much of the BSP think tanks agenda. However, knowing the political acumen of Mayawati, who has managed the task of bringing two socially divergent populations on a single plank, must have given some thought on how to best manage the inherent contradictions that might face her government soon after her coronation. Importantly, if she has not, then this social experimentation maybe a one off and the next cycle of elections may be throwback to fractured mandates.
The two national parties – the Congress and the BJP seem to have diminished to the point of no return in these elections. More than the Congress it is the BJP that will have to introspect on where it stands and what it must do to regain some sort of standing in the states political matrix. The experiment to project a Thakur party president in Rajnath Singh and an OBC as chief ministerial candidate in Kalyan Singh failed to enthuse the voters. The reason for the failure of the BJP strategy are many but the important ones are that firstly, these elections marked the coming together of the Brahmin and the Dalit vote bank to reduce the growing influence of the OBC’s politics in the form of Mulayam Singh Yadav and the like. The projection of another OBC alternative to Yadav just did not gel with that thinking. Secondly, the BJP’s understanding or appearance of having cut a deal with the Samajwadi Party ensured that the voter dumped the BJP for the BSP. The voter did not seem keen to bring in the BJP that could have meant a mere continuation of the SP policies albeit behind the scenes. Thirdly, the national issues raised by the BJP pertaining to the Afzal judgment, lack of internal security etc. along with Hindutva seemed distant and irrelevant to the ordinary voter. The BJP failed to capitalize on the ills that the SP government brought with it. This acute failure on part of the BJP reinforced the tacit-understanding-with-the-SP theory. Either way, after the cheer of Uttrakhand and Punjab, the UP elections are a definite dampener. However, it remains to be seen who will ultimately become the target for this defeat – Rajnath or Kalyan or maybe both. Whatever this impending introspection may lead to, it is important that the BJP moves on from its tried and tested (and sometimes failed) leaders. The days of Kesri Nath Tripathi, Lalji Tandon, Kalraj Mishra and Kalyan Singh seem over. The party needs to rebuild from the ground up and that too within five years.
The Congress remains a bystander in the realipolitik of the state. Having lost its upper caste and Dalit vote to the BSP, it tried to gain some inroads by bringing in their heir apparent Rahul Gandhi into these elections. He too like the BJP managed to raise innate issues like the Babri Masjid and the division of Pakistan, which were non-issues in these elections. Here again, like in the case of the BJP, the voter saw the synergies of policies and vote banks between the BSP and the Congress. The voter decided that instead of voting for the Congress and make them gain a few dozen seats, it would make better sense to vote for Mayawati and get a one party rule. The Congress’ decimation shows that unfortunately even star power in the form of a Gandhi could not save the party’s fortune. The Congress too must change its team in the state. With Salman Khurshid and Pramod Tiwari sharing a frosty relationship, the outcome for the Congress was more or less decided. The Congress must also refrain from feeling elated with having “achieved its aim of ousting the SP” in these elections. For one, they were not the reason for the SP’s defeat, it was the SP itself that spectacularly sealed its own fate, and second even if they take credit for the SP’s defeat, they managed to create a bigger monster while slaying an earlier foe. The BSP has gained on the Congress’ loss, and this sign is not encouraging for the Congress. Their vote bank is now in the kitty of the BSP and the BSP is no mood to share any power with the Congress, whom she must thank for the absolute majority that she enjoys today. Then again, if Mayawati manages to keep her new vote bank intact the Congress can forget about power in a state they virtually ruled for better part of the country’s independence.
The Samajwadi Party never really stood a chance in these elections. However, for all the doomsday predictions, the party has managed to get the principal opposition party status. Mulayam will surely return to the Vidhan Sabha as leader of the opposition, but he will also wonder whether his days of playing a role in the centre and the state are over, at least for the time being. What with a hostile dispensation at the centre and an equally bitter opponent in power in UP the party will have to lay low for some time to come. The time away from power should help the party to introspect into where they stand and how they are perceived in Indian politics. The Mulayam Raj will go down as one of the worst in the state’s history and it is time the party realize that the principles of socialists like Lohia, whom they claim to represent, is mere lip-service to that ideology. Also, the Left, which claims to be a fellow ideologue of the SP, must also answer questions on how they could have supported the party knowing the manner in which business was conducted in the state for the past three years. The criminalization and bollywoodisation of politics is something that the Left is decidedly against, then in supporting Mulayam how can they still claim to have the moral halo around them in Indian politics.
But for the time being it is Mayawati who has managed a feat that most politicians of any stature could not. This victory on its own will ensure that she will go down as one of the stalwarts of the Dalit movement and one wonders whether her next dream is to conquer Delhi. Age and acumen are on her side, important attributes in politics, however, will fate and luck also come calling only time can tell.
While all the pundits have hailed Mayawati’s dramatic transformation from the bane in the side of the upper castes to actively wooing them and come to power, this rainbow coalition formed by some deft social engineering does have it pitfalls. Many argue that quite like the Congress, the BSP has managed to bring the Brahmins and the Dalits on a common platform and win a thumping majority, albeit in a situation where the Brahmins and upper castes are playing second fiddle to the Dalits. There in lies the potential for damage for the BSP. Which way will the policies sway – towards Dalit interests or to that of the newly inducted upper caste? While winning the elections on a common social platform of upper and lower castes may have been the easy part of this wider social engineering Mayawati is credited with, managing conflicting interests is something that will truly test her political mettle. Will the upper castes that she has so sincerely wooed accept policies that are specifically in the interest of Dalits? Will the issue of reservations and quotas (though federal subjects) not hurt the upper caste voter? Then again if she does not keep her traditional vote back of Dalits happy, does she not run the risk of alienating them or worse antagonizing them much the same way that Laloo did after 15 years of rule piggybacking the OBC vote in Bihar. These amongst other issues will surely consume much of the BSP think tanks agenda. However, knowing the political acumen of Mayawati, who has managed the task of bringing two socially divergent populations on a single plank, must have given some thought on how to best manage the inherent contradictions that might face her government soon after her coronation. Importantly, if she has not, then this social experimentation maybe a one off and the next cycle of elections may be throwback to fractured mandates.
The two national parties – the Congress and the BJP seem to have diminished to the point of no return in these elections. More than the Congress it is the BJP that will have to introspect on where it stands and what it must do to regain some sort of standing in the states political matrix. The experiment to project a Thakur party president in Rajnath Singh and an OBC as chief ministerial candidate in Kalyan Singh failed to enthuse the voters. The reason for the failure of the BJP strategy are many but the important ones are that firstly, these elections marked the coming together of the Brahmin and the Dalit vote bank to reduce the growing influence of the OBC’s politics in the form of Mulayam Singh Yadav and the like. The projection of another OBC alternative to Yadav just did not gel with that thinking. Secondly, the BJP’s understanding or appearance of having cut a deal with the Samajwadi Party ensured that the voter dumped the BJP for the BSP. The voter did not seem keen to bring in the BJP that could have meant a mere continuation of the SP policies albeit behind the scenes. Thirdly, the national issues raised by the BJP pertaining to the Afzal judgment, lack of internal security etc. along with Hindutva seemed distant and irrelevant to the ordinary voter. The BJP failed to capitalize on the ills that the SP government brought with it. This acute failure on part of the BJP reinforced the tacit-understanding-with-the-SP theory. Either way, after the cheer of Uttrakhand and Punjab, the UP elections are a definite dampener. However, it remains to be seen who will ultimately become the target for this defeat – Rajnath or Kalyan or maybe both. Whatever this impending introspection may lead to, it is important that the BJP moves on from its tried and tested (and sometimes failed) leaders. The days of Kesri Nath Tripathi, Lalji Tandon, Kalraj Mishra and Kalyan Singh seem over. The party needs to rebuild from the ground up and that too within five years.
The Congress remains a bystander in the realipolitik of the state. Having lost its upper caste and Dalit vote to the BSP, it tried to gain some inroads by bringing in their heir apparent Rahul Gandhi into these elections. He too like the BJP managed to raise innate issues like the Babri Masjid and the division of Pakistan, which were non-issues in these elections. Here again, like in the case of the BJP, the voter saw the synergies of policies and vote banks between the BSP and the Congress. The voter decided that instead of voting for the Congress and make them gain a few dozen seats, it would make better sense to vote for Mayawati and get a one party rule. The Congress’ decimation shows that unfortunately even star power in the form of a Gandhi could not save the party’s fortune. The Congress too must change its team in the state. With Salman Khurshid and Pramod Tiwari sharing a frosty relationship, the outcome for the Congress was more or less decided. The Congress must also refrain from feeling elated with having “achieved its aim of ousting the SP” in these elections. For one, they were not the reason for the SP’s defeat, it was the SP itself that spectacularly sealed its own fate, and second even if they take credit for the SP’s defeat, they managed to create a bigger monster while slaying an earlier foe. The BSP has gained on the Congress’ loss, and this sign is not encouraging for the Congress. Their vote bank is now in the kitty of the BSP and the BSP is no mood to share any power with the Congress, whom she must thank for the absolute majority that she enjoys today. Then again, if Mayawati manages to keep her new vote bank intact the Congress can forget about power in a state they virtually ruled for better part of the country’s independence.
The Samajwadi Party never really stood a chance in these elections. However, for all the doomsday predictions, the party has managed to get the principal opposition party status. Mulayam will surely return to the Vidhan Sabha as leader of the opposition, but he will also wonder whether his days of playing a role in the centre and the state are over, at least for the time being. What with a hostile dispensation at the centre and an equally bitter opponent in power in UP the party will have to lay low for some time to come. The time away from power should help the party to introspect into where they stand and how they are perceived in Indian politics. The Mulayam Raj will go down as one of the worst in the state’s history and it is time the party realize that the principles of socialists like Lohia, whom they claim to represent, is mere lip-service to that ideology. Also, the Left, which claims to be a fellow ideologue of the SP, must also answer questions on how they could have supported the party knowing the manner in which business was conducted in the state for the past three years. The criminalization and bollywoodisation of politics is something that the Left is decidedly against, then in supporting Mulayam how can they still claim to have the moral halo around them in Indian politics.
But for the time being it is Mayawati who has managed a feat that most politicians of any stature could not. This victory on its own will ensure that she will go down as one of the stalwarts of the Dalit movement and one wonders whether her next dream is to conquer Delhi. Age and acumen are on her side, important attributes in politics, however, will fate and luck also come calling only time can tell.
posted by Karan Thakur @ 2:35 AM
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