Baker’s Truth on Iraq: Get out and get out fast
The most important foreign policy document for the Bush Administration finally saw the light of day with the bipartisan Iraq Study Group finally coming out with its 79 recommendations on the way forward in Iraq. The report made from some in your face grim reading with a bleak assessment of the outcome of current American policy in Iraq. Though, much of the reports recommendations were made available thanks to the selective leaks to the media, the basic undercurrent of the report was that the Bush policy is failing and moreover doomed for a complete failure in Iraq. The group has outlined three main areas of change. Firstly, it recommends that the American troops change their primary mission in Iraq from anti-insurgency to support and training of Iraqi forces. Second, it has asked the Iraqi government to set realistic landmarks – political, military and economic to end the sectarian divide and help the country on a path of reconciliation. Third, they have called for an urgent need to initiate a new diplomatic effort in the region to bring in Iraq’s neighbours to the table to help fight the growing divide in the country.
The three key recommendations are not new, but considering they come from a 10-member panel that includes democrats and republicans and headed by a Bush Sr. confidante, the writing is clearly on the wall. The group’s assessment is in a way the call from the entire political fraternity on both sides of the divide to tell in no uncertain terms that the current policy in Iraq is unacceptable. The group’s report could not have come at a better time, with over 2900 American troops dead and another 21,000 wounded, the country is polarized on the war and the cracks in even the staunchest of Republican support base is beginning to show. Politics apart, the commission suggests that the Iraq war could be billed at over a trillion dollars, a price that will certainly leave most Americans wondering whether that money could have been better spent on internal issues or on the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Moreover, unlike the President's proclamations, the war in Iraq has made America more unpopular and unsafe than ever before. Al-Qaeda is still a menacing threat to the world and the war against terror has derailed with the Americans caught up in stopping sectarian strife and fighting armed militias in Iraq. Better still the troop involvement in Afghanistan, the real theatre of the war on terror has a paltry 32,000 troops while Iraq has close to 150,000. The need to fight the resurgent Taliban is more acute than preventing civil war in Iraq. Strategic analysts summarize by saying that the situation in Iraq looks worse than it actually is, while Afghanistan is actually worse than how it seems.
The report and its bleak assessment does some blunt talking with it clearly stating that “military solution alone will not work”. Further, the report says that the famous Bushism, “staying the course” will also not work. Hence, it is clear that the change in tactics and strategy is the need of the hour, if Bush wants to salvage some sort of a graceful exit from Iraq. The most interesting aspect of the report suggests the setting up of an International Iraq Support Group. This group will engage the support of Iraq’s neighbours including Iran, Syria, Egypt and the Gulf States apart from representatives from the UN, EU and the five permanent members of the Security Council. Such a suggestion, though making diplomatic sense, has been out rightly rejected by the Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, who insists that the solution to Iraq will be decided by Iraq and not by outsiders which amounts to interfering with the Iraq internal issues. The sentiment is well taken as Mr. Talabani may want to address a domestic audience by that statement, he too will accept the role Iran plays in the Shia majority of Iraq and the influence of Syria in the rising sectarian divide. Involving the players who have a stake seems to be the only solution for Iraq. Then again Iraq was at war with Iran for close to a decade and for Iraqis to look at the Iranians as their saviors is a bitter pill to swallow. The option lies with the Shia bloc in the Iraqi parliament, if they wish to not be at the mercy of Iran for a solution, they themselves must stop their dependence, economic and ideological, on the Iranians. Coming to the International Iraqi Support Group, it remains to be seen whether Bush will bite the bullet and call the Syrians and Iranians for a summit to discuss the way out in Iraq. The biggest beneficiary of the Iraq war remains Iran, which will extract some concessions from the international community in return for its support for a new way forward in Iraq.
The Iraq Study Group has also looked at other options for a new policy on Iraq. They have rejected the notion of a federal structure on sectarian lines, with a centralized government in Baghdad, as one that will cause chaos and civil war. Also, they suggest that such a step might trigger a regional war. So only a staggered withdrawal of troops with a force of 20,000 to aid in training of Iraqi troops and Special Forces to battle Al-Qaeda and support the Iraqi security forces holds profound merit in the current state of affairs. With the “ability of the US to influence events in Iraq diminishing“, an 18-month withdrawal plan is highly recommended to salvage some sort of a victory in Iraq.
What remains to be seen is how much influence the report will ultimately have on the White House. This may provide the right political cover for Bush to initiate a phased and responsible withdrawal, citing a bipartisan voice urging such a move. However, if accepted, Bush will also tacitly admit to his own failure in Iraq. All may not be lost, but Bush has certainly lost some of the famed political capital he has earned after the 2004 presidential elections. The hope is that he can end this war with minimum damage – political, military and economic and at the same time set the stage for a Republican continuity in the 2008 elections. That may be a long shot, but the recommendations of the commission will put the ball in Bush’s court to take some action on it. Bush has the last opportunity to salvage some brownie point from all of this. If he gives up his brusque ways in the last two years of his presidency and helps unite the nation and the world into a honorable exit with an acceptance of some of his shortcomings he can emerge as a leader tried to make a difference in the post 9/11 world albeit in a divisive and bloody way. Who knows we may have “misunderestimated” him all this while, but it is ultimately for him to realize that only he controls his own legacy and time is running out as his legacy is already stands tainted.
The most important foreign policy document for the Bush Administration finally saw the light of day with the bipartisan Iraq Study Group finally coming out with its 79 recommendations on the way forward in Iraq. The report made from some in your face grim reading with a bleak assessment of the outcome of current American policy in Iraq. Though, much of the reports recommendations were made available thanks to the selective leaks to the media, the basic undercurrent of the report was that the Bush policy is failing and moreover doomed for a complete failure in Iraq. The group has outlined three main areas of change. Firstly, it recommends that the American troops change their primary mission in Iraq from anti-insurgency to support and training of Iraqi forces. Second, it has asked the Iraqi government to set realistic landmarks – political, military and economic to end the sectarian divide and help the country on a path of reconciliation. Third, they have called for an urgent need to initiate a new diplomatic effort in the region to bring in Iraq’s neighbours to the table to help fight the growing divide in the country.
The three key recommendations are not new, but considering they come from a 10-member panel that includes democrats and republicans and headed by a Bush Sr. confidante, the writing is clearly on the wall. The group’s assessment is in a way the call from the entire political fraternity on both sides of the divide to tell in no uncertain terms that the current policy in Iraq is unacceptable. The group’s report could not have come at a better time, with over 2900 American troops dead and another 21,000 wounded, the country is polarized on the war and the cracks in even the staunchest of Republican support base is beginning to show. Politics apart, the commission suggests that the Iraq war could be billed at over a trillion dollars, a price that will certainly leave most Americans wondering whether that money could have been better spent on internal issues or on the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Moreover, unlike the President's proclamations, the war in Iraq has made America more unpopular and unsafe than ever before. Al-Qaeda is still a menacing threat to the world and the war against terror has derailed with the Americans caught up in stopping sectarian strife and fighting armed militias in Iraq. Better still the troop involvement in Afghanistan, the real theatre of the war on terror has a paltry 32,000 troops while Iraq has close to 150,000. The need to fight the resurgent Taliban is more acute than preventing civil war in Iraq. Strategic analysts summarize by saying that the situation in Iraq looks worse than it actually is, while Afghanistan is actually worse than how it seems.
The report and its bleak assessment does some blunt talking with it clearly stating that “military solution alone will not work”. Further, the report says that the famous Bushism, “staying the course” will also not work. Hence, it is clear that the change in tactics and strategy is the need of the hour, if Bush wants to salvage some sort of a graceful exit from Iraq. The most interesting aspect of the report suggests the setting up of an International Iraq Support Group. This group will engage the support of Iraq’s neighbours including Iran, Syria, Egypt and the Gulf States apart from representatives from the UN, EU and the five permanent members of the Security Council. Such a suggestion, though making diplomatic sense, has been out rightly rejected by the Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, who insists that the solution to Iraq will be decided by Iraq and not by outsiders which amounts to interfering with the Iraq internal issues. The sentiment is well taken as Mr. Talabani may want to address a domestic audience by that statement, he too will accept the role Iran plays in the Shia majority of Iraq and the influence of Syria in the rising sectarian divide. Involving the players who have a stake seems to be the only solution for Iraq. Then again Iraq was at war with Iran for close to a decade and for Iraqis to look at the Iranians as their saviors is a bitter pill to swallow. The option lies with the Shia bloc in the Iraqi parliament, if they wish to not be at the mercy of Iran for a solution, they themselves must stop their dependence, economic and ideological, on the Iranians. Coming to the International Iraqi Support Group, it remains to be seen whether Bush will bite the bullet and call the Syrians and Iranians for a summit to discuss the way out in Iraq. The biggest beneficiary of the Iraq war remains Iran, which will extract some concessions from the international community in return for its support for a new way forward in Iraq.
The Iraq Study Group has also looked at other options for a new policy on Iraq. They have rejected the notion of a federal structure on sectarian lines, with a centralized government in Baghdad, as one that will cause chaos and civil war. Also, they suggest that such a step might trigger a regional war. So only a staggered withdrawal of troops with a force of 20,000 to aid in training of Iraqi troops and Special Forces to battle Al-Qaeda and support the Iraqi security forces holds profound merit in the current state of affairs. With the “ability of the US to influence events in Iraq diminishing“, an 18-month withdrawal plan is highly recommended to salvage some sort of a victory in Iraq.
What remains to be seen is how much influence the report will ultimately have on the White House. This may provide the right political cover for Bush to initiate a phased and responsible withdrawal, citing a bipartisan voice urging such a move. However, if accepted, Bush will also tacitly admit to his own failure in Iraq. All may not be lost, but Bush has certainly lost some of the famed political capital he has earned after the 2004 presidential elections. The hope is that he can end this war with minimum damage – political, military and economic and at the same time set the stage for a Republican continuity in the 2008 elections. That may be a long shot, but the recommendations of the commission will put the ball in Bush’s court to take some action on it. Bush has the last opportunity to salvage some brownie point from all of this. If he gives up his brusque ways in the last two years of his presidency and helps unite the nation and the world into a honorable exit with an acceptance of some of his shortcomings he can emerge as a leader tried to make a difference in the post 9/11 world albeit in a divisive and bloody way. Who knows we may have “misunderestimated” him all this while, but it is ultimately for him to realize that only he controls his own legacy and time is running out as his legacy is already stands tainted.
posted by Karan Thakur @ 12:05 AM
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