Indo-Pak talks: Don't bite the Siachen bullet
India and Pakistan will resume their foreign secretary level talks in the coming days. On the plate is a diverse agenda ranging from the next steps in confidence building measures, the controversial joint anti-terror mechanism, the border disputes, Siachen and most obviously Kashmir and cross border terrorism. The much talked about evidence, whether it is clinching or otherwise, about Pakistan’s involvement in the 7/11 Mumbai blasts will likely to generate the maximum heat and pubic attention. Post India’s open talk about evidence on Pakistan’s 7/11 involvement, Pakistan has curiously been adopting measures to diplomatically stump India with a series of premature ideas and possible solutions that have neither been discussed or at best have not got approval across the board. One such notion that is being floated by President Musharraf and Pakistani Foreign Secretary, Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri is one on the impending breakthrough and final settlement of the Siachen issue.
Siachen, the world’s highest and most challenging battlefield has seen both sides lose soldiers and money to keep the strategically vital glacier under their respective controls. India occupied the glacier in 1984 and has ever since more or less controlled the glacier and its key peaks. Most notably the Saltoro ridge has been under Indian control and has proved to be the strategic watershed on who controls Siachen. Also, with Siachen under its belt, the Indian army can take a peek at the Pakistani military installations on the Pakistani side whilst also protect Ladakh from any untoward Pakistani military misadventures. Moreover, the Indian army through its commander in Siachen has made it amply clear that the control of Siachen is paramount and any troop withdrawal at this stage will only be counterproductive. For his part, Kasuri, has been vocally speaking to the press about the breakthrough that is likely to be in place in a matter of “days, not weeks”, as told to NDTV in an interview. The wide proclamations have been politely scoffed at by the Indian establishment who are yet to see the reason behind Kasuri’s blustering optimism. That said, the Pakistani side has been known to be better than ours in the battle for public sound bytes and diplomacy. This latest statement too seems to indicate that the Pakistani’s are playing the game of brinkmanship in setting the agenda for the talks with India. Their desire is to push India to a ‘Siachen only’ corner during the talks, since it will be under constant speculation and media attention, while pushing back the potentially damaging Indian agenda on 7/11 links and cross border terror. Again, if India is seen to shy away from speaking on Siachen, Pakistan will argue that another opportunity by Pakistan to find lasting peace has been discarded by India. If we do make a commitment on Siachen, domestic politics will ensure a through consensus on the decision or worst still a roll back on whatever commitments are given during the Foreign Secretary level talks. The Indian diplomatic establishment under the old Pakistan hand S.S. Menon and the Foreign Ministry now under Pranab Mukherjee will need to preempt the Pakistan ploy of forcing its agenda and will need to clearly outline that the agenda as we see it, which is clearly about cross border terror, 7/11 and Kashmir. Also, equally important is getting the joint anti-terror mechanism up and running, what with, the prime minister putting all the diplomatic eggs on the anti- terror mechanism basket, some positive movement on the front is a logical expectation.
Siachen, the world’s highest and most challenging battlefield has seen both sides lose soldiers and money to keep the strategically vital glacier under their respective controls. India occupied the glacier in 1984 and has ever since more or less controlled the glacier and its key peaks. Most notably the Saltoro ridge has been under Indian control and has proved to be the strategic watershed on who controls Siachen. Also, with Siachen under its belt, the Indian army can take a peek at the Pakistani military installations on the Pakistani side whilst also protect Ladakh from any untoward Pakistani military misadventures. Moreover, the Indian army through its commander in Siachen has made it amply clear that the control of Siachen is paramount and any troop withdrawal at this stage will only be counterproductive. For his part, Kasuri, has been vocally speaking to the press about the breakthrough that is likely to be in place in a matter of “days, not weeks”, as told to NDTV in an interview. The wide proclamations have been politely scoffed at by the Indian establishment who are yet to see the reason behind Kasuri’s blustering optimism. That said, the Pakistani side has been known to be better than ours in the battle for public sound bytes and diplomacy. This latest statement too seems to indicate that the Pakistani’s are playing the game of brinkmanship in setting the agenda for the talks with India. Their desire is to push India to a ‘Siachen only’ corner during the talks, since it will be under constant speculation and media attention, while pushing back the potentially damaging Indian agenda on 7/11 links and cross border terror. Again, if India is seen to shy away from speaking on Siachen, Pakistan will argue that another opportunity by Pakistan to find lasting peace has been discarded by India. If we do make a commitment on Siachen, domestic politics will ensure a through consensus on the decision or worst still a roll back on whatever commitments are given during the Foreign Secretary level talks. The Indian diplomatic establishment under the old Pakistan hand S.S. Menon and the Foreign Ministry now under Pranab Mukherjee will need to preempt the Pakistan ploy of forcing its agenda and will need to clearly outline that the agenda as we see it, which is clearly about cross border terror, 7/11 and Kashmir. Also, equally important is getting the joint anti-terror mechanism up and running, what with, the prime minister putting all the diplomatic eggs on the anti- terror mechanism basket, some positive movement on the front is a logical expectation.
The next level of talks between the two neighbours is bound to generate a lot of interest on both sides. However, the expectations must be tempered against realism. Anyone who has read President Musharraf’s memoir will acknowledge that making lasting peace with this man is not only tough it seems impossible. However, since we can’t choose or wish away other countries leaders, one must work with him. This while he and his PR machinery continue to offer solutions that are over the top and mostly unacceptable. More importantly, Menon and Mukherjee must ensure that India’s agenda to find a solution for Kashmir and stop cross border terror activities must be squarely on top of the agenda, even if it means the Pakistani side walks away with more media brownie points and more fodder to complain about against its neighbour. The future of the Indo-Pak peace talks rests not on television interviews but actually on finding real peace and real solutions on mutually acceptable, rather than dictated, terms.
posted by Karan Thakur @ 4:59 AM
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