French Elections : Is Sarkozy the right man for the job?

The leader of the conservative UMP party, Nicolas Sarkozy was all but elected the next President of the fifth republic of France and to succeed the incumbent Jacques Chirac to the Elysee Palace. The two weeks prior to the two-candidate run-off saw intense jostling for votes, with both sides wanting to sway the 18% of Centrist voters of erstwhile candidate Francois Bayrou. In the end with a comfortable 53% of the votes, Sarkozy has emerged as the new leader of France. With the 52 year olds elevation to the top of the French political pyramid, France also marks a generational change in politics, as he will be the first French President to be born after the Great War. His succession as it were to the Elysee Palace also marks a deft right turn for French Politics, which had become more accustomed to the welfare-socialist state that it had become, ironically under the right-wing Chirac. The defeat of the runner up Ms. Sergolene Royal also marks a crucial chapter in the political life of the Socialist Party that has faced its third successive defeat in as many elections. How they come out of this will be something that even the party’s top brass themselves must be wondering. And how to move to more centrist policies without losing the French electorate that votes to the Left will continue to take much of the post poll defeat of the party.

The man in the centre of the action though is Nicolas Sarkozy. Having emerged as the favourite very early on in the race and in going on to win one of the most keenly contested elections in French history he has realized his dream of leading his country. For the moribund power that had become France, Sarkozy seems to be the right man for the job. The social welfare policies of the French were slowly bleeding the country, with productivity dropping and lop-sided subsidies providing artificial relief to the crucial agriculture sector of France. In international affairs too the waning of French influence post September 11 and the Iraq war was unfortunate. In standing up to the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ Chirac and France invited the wrath of the US and UK who looked to paint the picture of France being inconsequential in world affairs. But France does have a lot to offer to the world both economically and politically. The failure of the US in securing Iraq and a re-emboldened Al-Qaeda has made the US a much-hated figure in most parts of the world. Then again, in the plummeting popularity ratings of the President, George Bush, the Americans have lost out in having a definitive say in world affairs. The world community is gradually less inclined to toe the American line and more pressed to take the opinions of other countries even though they may not be part of the famed coalition of the willing. Increasingly the world community is relying on the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel to define how to take the world forward and resolve the Arab-Israel conflict and the larger “War on Terror”. Iran, a privy member of the “Axis of Evil” is now being roped into peace talks in a bid to help stabilize Iraq. The Saudis, who were sidelined by the Bush administration post the September 11 attacks, are now playing a major role in bringing Iraq’s neighbors together to solve the embattled nations sectarian divide. In such a scenario, where many voices are voicing as many opinions, the French have been missing. However, it seems that with Sarkozy in the Elysee palace, that may change. He has openly expressed his desire to mend fences with the US and UK. He has talked about a mini-EU conference where discussions on how to take the talks on the stalled EU constitution can be taken forward and he will definitely want to increase French economic presence in the Middle East and Africa, a traditional trading partner of the two regions.

But much of the change will also be internal. France needs to get competitive, what with fierce competition from India and China, the French cannot sit back and take the good times for granted. France has one of the most sluggish growth rates in Europe. The 35-hour workweek has reduced productivity. The influx of migrants from the former Soviet bloc has taken jobs away from French residents. More importantly the influx of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East have raised ethnic tensions in France and has led to social unrest. The issue of illegal migration is something that Sarkozy has made his centrepiece for these elections. He wants to tighten the law to make it tough for immigrants to come into the country. That may solve the short-term problem of illegal immigration; it will not sort the long-term problem of the social malaise that has set in French society. It is without a doubt the illegal migrants who are willing to work for longer in jobs that the French won’t do and a price that will be difficult to match. For any industrial house a combination like that is unbeatable and has been followed by every developed nation in a bid to boost productivity while controlling costs. The other mainstay of Sarkozy plans is to provide tax benefits to industry so as to boost productivity. Much on the lines of the Republican policy of a smaller government with only regulatory control over industry, Sarkozy wishes to see the same happening in France. While such a dramatic social change may take years in the making, it will no doubt help boost the French industry in the short term. Then again, trade barriers is another feather that Sarkozy has taken out of the Republican hat and has promised to protect the French farming community with new trade barriers. This will help sustain the French hold over farm and dairy products within the EU, but will be difficult to implement in the new WTO environment where developing countries are asking for the artificial import tariffs to be waived for a more globally competitive environment.

So, while the French electorate has clearly chosen its new leader. A young, energetic and straight talking individual to take their country to its long lost glory, the hope is that he can do so in as inclusive a manner as possible. For the promise of a Right wing conservative candidate in George Bush, saw the US electorate voting Republican in 2000 (an election that is still too close to call) and then again in 2004, but by 2007 they are left disillusioned with their choice for not being bi-partisan and inclusive in his policy formulation. Although, he has made the right conciliatory noises in his victory speech, it will be important to see how he takes his country forward in a united way, if he does have any doubts on how a divided nation can turn its back on a promising leader, he needn’t look beyond his new friend George Bush