UlteriorMotive

Politics and International Affairs and the quest for the ulterior motive.

Friday, December 29, 2006

The End of Saddam - Death of a Dictator
Saddam Hussein, the brutal dictator who ruled Iraq for over 25 years was finally executed in the early hours of today by the Iraqi Government in what is seen as a closure of sorts for Iraqis and the country’s tumultuous history. With his execution also comes to an end a regime who’s brutally was on universal display through their acts and actions within and outside the country. Saddam himself was defiant till the end and still regarded himself as the rightful President of Iraq. The end of Saddam ironically marks the end of a bloody era in Iraqi history but at the same time also ushers in an equally bloody immediate aftermath. The questions still remain – did he get a fair trial? Was it nothing more than victor’s justice? Was there an alternative? Will this make Iraq more peaceful in the long run?

While many of these questions will linger for some time to come, any speculation on whether Saddam would actually be hanged or not has now been laid to rest. The Iraqi government was keen to show its firm command over the internal issues of their country and also put its stamp of authority over the execution, not wanting to be seen as a mere puppet regime propped up by the U.S. The US too was keen to back away from any involvement in the actual execution which would have only made the Iraqi popular sentiment rage against the American actions. There has often been speculation on whether the US would “allow” the execution to go on. It is important to point out that the control and influence of the Americans on the Iraqi government is often overstated. Today in Iraq, we have a Shia dominated government and society that bore the brunt of Saddam’s regime. Now in power, nothing will give them more satisfaction than to see dictator pay for his actions. And in that spirit the impending execution was indeed imminent.

Another important question the Saddam saga brings out is over the legitimacy of the trial itself. Many legal analysts argue over whether the trial met international standards. Or whether his guilt was assumed prior to the start of his trial. It is significant to mention that whether this trial met international standards is not as significant as the fact the court that gave justice was an Iraqi one and it is ultimately the Iraqis who decide the fate of their leader on the basis of a constitution and constitutional law so decided by the entire spectrum of Iraqi politics. International trials and courts themselves don’t have a brilliant track record either. Their failure to give justice to Milosevic, Pinochet and perpetrators of other genocides does not augur well for international justice. Then again a Saddam trial in the International Court of Justice would have again raised questions on the fairness of the trial, considering the West’s disdain for the dictator. In lieu of such aspects, an Iraqi trial by an Iraqi judge seems the fairest option at the time.

Saddam Hussein did have a certain romanticism attached with him amongst many people all over the world. His defiance of the West and the US in particular was seen as what can be described as “Arab Machismo” which saw Iraq take on the mighty US army in the Gulf War of 1991. The failure of Bush Senior to “take out” Saddam further added to the myth of the dictator’s invincibility. But for all the defiance against the West he inspired in the Middle East, there was broad consensus in the world community over his brutality and barbaric acts of genocide against his own people – most notably against the Shias and the Kurds. The Dujail Massacre and the Anbar offensive saw many Shias being summarily executed the gassing of the Kurds and the eradication of the Marsh Arabs have horrified generations. Then again the acts of his sons including murder, intimidation and rape further spread hatred and revulsion in equal measure amongst Iraqi and the world alike. Saddam was himself involved in the execution of his sons in law who defected to Jordan and let the world know of Iraq’s secret weapons program. The very execution of his own relatives remains a chilling testament to the utter disregard for human life this dictator had.

The life and times of Saddam have been dramatic to say the least. His rise to power after overthrowing his own mentor in 1979, his acts of military aggression against the Iranians from 1980 to 1988, which saw the support of the US for his regime. The infamous photo of former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam 1982 is stamped in memory forever. His defiant stand against the US in 1991 remains etched in public memory. Then again the fall of the Saddam statue in 2003 and his subsequent capture from a “spider hole” in December 2003 will never be forgotten. Also, one can never forget the dramatic press conference by the then US Administrator in Iraq, Ambassador Paul Bremer’s three famous words, “We got him” will never be forgotten. His sentencing and the subsequent execution too becomes part of world history.

But his execution also marks a solemn day for Iraqis, who will now reconcile to the fact that in whatever little way they finally did get justice. For the relatives of close to 400,000 people who went missing or killed during his rule this maybe little conciliation, but then again not many Iraqis thought that they would see this day. The overriding question that comes out of the execution is what effect it will have on the current violence and insurgency in Iraq. Frankly, the answer is not too rosy. There will be a short term flare up in violence, most notably by the Sunni militias who will see this as the day when any chances of the Sunnis regaining authority over the country have all but finished. They will now have to live under Shia political and social dominance due to the sheer majority in numbers that the Shias enjoy. Then again the insurgency in Iraq has little to do with Saddam. The remnants of his regime and the Ba’ath Party form a very small minority of the violence. Saddam’s death may activate these insurgents, particularly in the Sunni triangle, but their actions will not significantly alter the current levels of violence. Some analysts argue whether the violence can get any worse than it already is, and hence Saddam’s execution will have only some much influence over the insurgency.

The execution of Saddam is a timely reminder to other strongmen in the world that they may also have to face the gallows for their actions, and more importantly the aura of invincibility is nothing but a smokescreen that can vanish in time and your actions will be accounted for – by victor’s justice or otherwise.

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