Enter: Left, Exit: UPA?

The assembly elections in the four states may just prove to be watershed for the ruling UPA. The Left, with no surprises expected in West Bengal, still managed to beat expectations with an impressive two-thirds of victorious candidates bagging the assembly. Oomen Chandy’s government on Kerala also was swept by the Left onslaught and now it seems that V.S. Achutanandan will become the chief minister of Kerala, provided the internal wrangling in the Left coalition do not resurface and hamper the consensus in their alliance. Tamil Nadu was the other decisive state going to the polls. And the state lived up to its reputation of cyclic approval followed by disapproval of the two main parties – the DMK and the AIADMK. The ‘wave’ of support that Amma got in the last elections seems to have evaporated in the Indian summer heat and the DMK is now set to install either Karunanidhi or his son Stalin as the chief minister in the state. Coupled with the victory in Pondicherry the DMK as emerged as the most powerful regional party south of the Vindhayas. It is pertinent to point out that DMK was in power in the NDA establishment and quit the alliance in favour of the Congress alliance before the elections in 2004. Many analysts believe that this crucial shift in the DMK’s poll affections ultimately brought the NDA down. The DMK has a succession plan also laid out with MK Stalin and Dayanidhi Maran the new rising ‘sons’ in the party known more for populist politics and dynastic succession. The exit of Jayalalitha will bring a fresh round of political vendetta and it is likely that the DMK will open old pending cases against her and try to being her to justice.

Clichéd as it may sound, there is no arguing the fact that the internal dynamics of the UPA will certainly be altered with these poll results. The prospect of an even stronger Left in the ruling alliance was on show yesterday, when the Petroleum Minister, Murli Deora actually sheepishly ‘appeared’ before the Left politburo to present his case for a price hike. The Left too realizing its increased say in the UPA rejected the minister’s proposal and the government was left looking a little inadequate with the Finance and Petroleum Ministers advocating a fuel hike and on the other hand the government remaining entirely mum on the decision. A similar situation was witnessed on the quota issue, with the HRD minister toeing one line and the Prime Minister, with no consensus amongst his own flock, looking a little out of his depth on the issue. Such situations are likely to become the norm with the emergence of alternate power centers in the government with the Left and DMK looking to assert its point of view and make it the policy of the UPA. The only consolation for the Congress is the fact that Sonia Gandhi won with an astounding 4-lakh votes, with all her opponents virtually decimated in the poll arena. However, before the Congress party begins to break open the champagne, they must realize that decisions and policies of the UPA may not start and end at 10 Janpath, as has been the norm, but may actually need the blessings of Chennai and Kolkatta for them to be meaningfully accepted and implemented by the UPA.